Data-Driven Bets (NFL Week 5, Sunday Games)

Trust your gut, strengthen it with data

Oct 06, 2024

Update on bet records:

Went 2-2 on TNF, but all 4 of the bets felt right. Here’s a recap of this weeks’ bets:

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🤔 Week 5 Trends to know:

🔥 Vikings are on fire - Get a hold of this. Vikings are 4-0, 4-0 ATS, 4-0 in the first quarter, 4-0 in the first half, and 4-0 on overs (link).
🧊 Public Money is no good - Continue to fade the public money. The majority of public money is 22-38-2 ATS this season, with a $100 bettor down $1,795 – the worst start for the betting public through four weeks in the last 20 years (link).
🛌 Rest Edge still isnt an edge right now - The teams with Rest Edge over their opponents still havent done too well: 7-9, 6-10 ATS. I’ll keep monitoring, but I expect teams with a Rest-Edge to preform better later in the season when games and injuries stack up.
🌭 Underdogs are the big dawgs - Underdogs of 6+ points are now 9-8 and 14-2-1 ATS (87.5%) through four weeks — covering the spread by 7.3 PPG (link).
🏃 Running remains king - This season there’s been just 15 QBs throw for 300+ passing yards. Those 15 QBs are 6-9 SU and just 3-11-1 ATS. That means if you bet an over on QB yards, expect them to be behind and trying to catch up (link).

⚡️Sunday Games

Other considerations:

The Giants average 2.65 points per drive in the first half (11th) and a league-low 0.65 points per drive in the second half (32nd).
18.6% of the runs against NY have gained 10 or more yards, 31st in the league.
Geno Smith is 2nd in the NFL in dropbacks. Geno is 31st in the league in using play action and 24th in the league in using motion but the Seahawks passing game is seeing success through Smith’s play and volume.

Bets:

Kenneth Walker (SEA) rushing yards over 68.5 -110

Jets vs Vikings is in London!

Other considerations:

NFL London Betting Trends:
- Favorites (moneyline): 21-11-1
- Favorites (spread): 17-16
- Under: 17-16. The Under has hit in four straight NFL London games.
The under is a combined 5-2-1 for the Vikings and Jets this year.
Josh Oliver (MIN) has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games
Breece Hall (NY) has hit the Receptions Over in 13 of his last 17 games

Bets:

Aaron Jones (MIN) longest rush over 15.5 -115

Other considerations:

Projected to have strong winds (16.1mph)
Carolina is allowing 2.87 points per drive, 30th.
Opponents have converted a league-high 91.7% (11-of-12) of their red zone possessions for touchdowns against Carolina.
The Bears have run none of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL

Bets:

Andy Dalton (CAR) longest completion under 34.5 -115
Chuba Hubbard (CAR) longest rush over 14.5 -115

Other considerations:

Cincinnati games are averaging 51.5 combined points per game, the second-most in the NFL.
The Ravens are averaging a first down or touchdown every 2.89 plays on offense, second in the NFL. The Bengals are averaging a first down or touchdown every 2.96 plays on offense, third in the NFL.
Baltimore averages 162.5 more rushing yards per game than their opponent, the most in the NFL.
The Bengals have scored on 58.8% of their drives in the second half this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Ravens defense has allowed scores on 50% of opponent drives in the second half this season — T-worst in NFL.

Other considerations:

The Patriots are averaging 114.5 fewer yards from scrimmage per game than their opponents, the worst differential in the league.
MIA QB Tyler Huntley can run: He ran 8 times for 40 yards and a TD a week ago.
The Patriots are 1-8 (.111) at home since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.

Other considerations:

58.8% of the Washington drives have reached the red zone or scored prior, the highest rate in the league.
Washington has punted the ball on 11.8% of their drives, the lowest rate in the league. Cleveland has punted on 50.0% of their drives, 31st in the league.

Other considerations:

The Colts have forced a three-and-out on a league-low 18.6% of drives by their opponent. 74.8% of the set of downs against the Colts result in a new first down or touchdown (26th).
75.7% of the set of downs against the Jaguars result in a new first down or touchdown (28th).

Bets:

Tank Bigsby (JAX) longest rush over 10.5 -105

Other considerations:

Buffalo has turned the ball over on 4.9% of their possessions, third in the NFL. Houston has turned the ball over on 6.8% of their possessions, which is fourth in the league.
The Bills are 3-of-12 (25%) on third and short (needing 3 or fewer yards), 31st in the league.
70.7% of the Houston yards have come via passing, which is sixth in the league.

Other considerations:

Denver games are averaging a league-low 29.3 combined points per game.
24.5% of the Denver drives have reached the red zone or scored prior (29th). 22.9% of the Las Vegas drives have reached the red zone or scored prior (30th).
The Broncos lead the NFL in sack differential (+12).

Bets:

Gardner Minshew (LV) passing yards under 193.5 -110
Gardner Minshew (LV) longest completion under 32.5 -109

Other considerations:

Arizona allows a first down or touchdown on a league-high 41.1% of passing plays.
Purdy leads the NFL in passing yards (1,130) and yards per pass attempt (9.3).

Other considerations:

The Packers lead the NFL in plays of 15 or more yards (37), 20 or more yards (24), and 30 or more yards (12).
The Packers have allowed 32 plays of 15 or more yards (30th) and 17 plays of 20 or more yards (28th) on defense.
Los Angeles is allowing a league-high 8.1 yards per passing play.

Bets:

Tucker Kraft (GB) receiving yards over 31.5 -114
Tucker Kraft (GB) receptions over 3.5 +122
Jayden Reed (GB) longest reception over 24.5 -113

Other considerations:

The Cowboys have one running back run of 10 or more yards, the fewest in the league.
Justin Fields is the only quarterback with 100% of his team’s offensive touchdowns.

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Data-Driven Bets (NFL)

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